Ticking time bomb

Published: Monday, November 30, 1998

Monday, November 30, 1998

Ticking time bomb

As we move steadily toward

the new millennium, a computer

glitch of epic proportions

threatens our very way of life

By Mara Schiavo-Campo

Daily Bruin Contributor

At the stroke of midnight on Dec. 31, 1999, Cinderella's electrically-powered, computer-generated horse and carriage may turn into a pumpkin.

Cinderella won't be alone, though; the entire world may find itself in this cyber fairy tale turned sour if it doesn't prepare for the technological inconveniences the new millennium may bring - including Y2K.

Y2K (the abbreviated form of "Year 2000") refers to a computer problem, which, if not adequately dealt with, could become one of the largest technological complications society has confronted.

"I'm guessing that it's going to be an inconvenience. On campus I would say it's going to be mostly Murphy Hall mainframes (that are affected)," said Peter Follet, programmer analyst for the department of computer sciences.

The problem began some 30 years ago, when the first computers were being programmed. The computer programmers at the time shortened the date to a two-digit form in order to save expensive memory space. For example, "1998" became "98."

The Y2K problem arises when "1999" becomes "2000" and those same computer programs attempt to read "00," which may be interpreted as 1900, and could result in miscalculation, malfunction or a complete shutdown.

"It should've been a no-brainer that this was going to happen," Follet said.

While at first glance the problem may seem like one with a relatively simple solution, it is actually more complex than one would imagine.

Tommie Porter, a fourth-year mechanical engineering student and senior sound technician for ASUCLA, explained the complications of the situation.

"The premise behind it is basic, but when you have billions of lines of code and have to make sure each one is up to date, it's time-consuming. It's basically a time and manpower issue - and a race against the clock," he said.

Y2K, also known as the "millennium bug," could have a number of ramifications, ranging from a malfunctioning ATM card to failing air traffic control systems.

For example, if a student has unpaid registration fees on their BAR account as of Dec. 31, 1999, the next day they could be faced with a bill for fees that are 99 years overdue.

Seeing as how the problem is one that affects older computer programs, it will have a minimal affect on newer, updated programs such as those found on campus.

"Mostly everything at ASUCLA is brand new, so (the problem's) probably not going to be that huge," Follet said.

According to Follet, the UCLA Medical Center would be hardest hit by a Y2K crisis because they are operating a lot of older computer systems.

Another possible outcome of the Y2K dilemma is far more grim. Traffic lights, air conditioning and electricity are just a few things in everyday life that could be affected by Y2K.

Since virtually no one can proceed through everyday life without some form of computer use, the results of a large-scale computer shutdown would be severe. Consider the ramifications if the nationwide power grid were to fail, or the telephone system, or the worldwide financial network - or all of those.

Financially, Y2K errors in banking systems could affect people's access to their money.

"If I can't get money out of the bank or write a check, then I can't continue with everyday life, and that's a problem" Porter said.

However, John Riley, professor and director of the business economics program, is confident that banking will be prepared for Y2K.

"Obvious areas like banking and the stock market will be taken care of far in advance. That's the last place there will be a problem," he said.

Joseph L. Foreman, a Presbyterian minister in Los Angeles and author of "Significant Dates and Circumstances to Watch for," predicts that the Y2K problem will indeed have severe financial repercussions.

While the Y2K situation is currently covered moderately by the media, as 2000 gets closer it is possible that intense media coverage will heighten public awareness.

"When it occurs to the investors all over the world that Y2K means the computers running the businesses they have invested in may go down, Wall Street will drain rapidly. On the heels of this, count on a run on the banks," he wrote.

However, Riley disagrees.

"There will be a concerted effort by companies to build (public) confidence. I don't think panic will grow," he said.

The possibility of a technological crisis has even been addressed on a national level.

President Clinton stressed the importance of Y2K preparation at a July press conference.

"Any business that approaches the New Year armed only with a bottle of champagne and a noisemaker is likely to have a very big hangover on New Year's morning," he said.

While the government and many businesses are doing a comprehensive job of anticipating and preparing for Y2K complications, the reality is that until the millennium actually changes, no one can predict exactly what will happen.

"The real mystery is that nobody's sure what's really going to happen. There's no way to know until the clock switches and that machines turn over," Follet said.

Backup plans will be implemented in the event of Y2K complications. According to Porter, many businesses may simply set calendars back several years in instances where information is not date-dependent.

Contingency plans also include making paper copies of data to refer to in the event of electronic scrambling. Overall, most businesses and government departments appear (at least publicly) to be calmly dealing with Y2K, confident that it will lead only to minor disruptions.

Senator Bob Bennett, chairman of the Senate Special Committee on Y2K, stressed foresight and preparation against irrational panic.

"We must be Paul Revere - we must tell everyone that Y2K is coming," he said. "But we must not be Chicken Little and tell them that the sky is falling."

So what is Cinderella to do? Is she to face the unknown future with anxiety or excitement? In either case, she's running out of time, so she might as well just go to the ball and party like it's 1999.

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