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British intelligence or Iraqi intelligence: Which do you trust?

The answer to that question has significant implications for the United States because if we believe the British, war is in our future.

Given the Iraqi regime’s history of lies, mass murder and more lies, the prudent policy is to back the Brits. So when British Prime Minister Tony Blair cites evidence indicating Saddam’s weapons of mass destruction program is “active, detailed and growing,” the international community should not doubt the veracity of Blair’s case for disarmament.

The groundwork was laid in a speech delivered before Parliament on Tuesday, in which Blair provided striking evidence that Saddam Hussein is continuing to expand his stockpiles of chemical and biological weapons, in addition to doggedly pursuing nuclear capabilities. According to Blair and the British Joint Intelligence Committee, there has been an “11 year history of lies told by Saddam about his existence of his chemical, biological and nuclear weapons programs. The one common consistent theme, however: The total determination of Saddam to maintain the programs.”

The British findings were nothing short of a smoking gun. According to British intelligence, the Iraqi regime has tried to acquire “significant quantities” of uranium from Africa – a material with no use in Iraq except as material to construct a nuclear weapon. Since the departure of U.N. inspectors in 1998, Saddam has “bought or attempted to buy specialized vacuum pumps of the needed design for the gas centrifuge cascade to enrich uranium.” Once again, there is no civil program that would require such instruments. The British Joint Intelligence Committee concludes that if left to its own devices, Iraq may only be “one or two years off from building a nuclear weapon.”

In addition to a burgeoning nuclear weapons program, Blair also cited evidence of Iraq’s menacing chemical and biological weapons capabilities. According to the British Joint Intelligence Committee, Iraq has retained many pre-Gulf War weapons stocks in addition to producing new chemical and biological weapons by reabsorbing pre-Gulf War scientists. Blair indicates these weapons could be activated within 45 minutes of a launch order.

Of course Iraqi officials deny the charges. Culture Minister Hamed Yousif Hummadi, speaking at a news conference, argued that “Mr. Blair is acting as part of a Zionist campaign against Iraq ... all of his claims are baseless.” He goes on to suggest the Iraqi regime is seeking anthrax, uranium and nuclear vacuum pumps solely for “legitimate purposes.” There is no word, however, on what those purposes are or what Iraqi officials consider “legitimate purposes.”

While this may be all the convincing other Arab nations need, the rest of the international community would be reckless to disregard Britain’s findings. As Blair shrewdly stated in his speech, “there is no way [Saddam], in this region above all regions, could not begin a conflict using his weapons and not engulf the world.”

If the United Nations cares to keep its credibility intact, it must recognize the clear and present danger of Iraq, as well as the necessity of Iraqi disarmament. It must hold accountable a regime that has treated U.N. resolutions with nearly as much disdain as its own people for a decade.

While Blair and President Bush could certainly force Iraq to comply with unfettered inspections and disarmament bilaterally, they are giving the United Nations a chance to carry the big stick – to bolster its own legitimacy by doing the right thing. They ask only that the United Nations trust their intelligence and not the utterings coming from Baghdad.

With Iraq’s track record, this should be self-evident. But the United Nations has caved to Saddam before, and it may well cave again. If such a circumstance arises, there is little doubt the United States along with Britain will use necessary force to ensure disarmament, regardless of the U.N. position.

As Blair and Bush have both stated, diplomacy not backed by force will never work with a dictator. These men understand that Saddam cannot be trusted. Let’s hope that on the heels of Blair’s speech, the United Nations also gets the picture.