A closer look: Gov. gains credibility with passage of Prop. 57, 58
Success displays Schwarzenegger’s political clout, promising future
Gov. Schwarzenegger can breathe a sigh of relief with the passage of Proposition 57: the Economic Recovery Bond Act and Proposition 58: the California Balanced Budget Act.
When he entered the political arena, one of the governor’s perceived strengths was that his Hollywood fame would allow him to look to the people for support.
The passage of these propositions adds credibility to his effectiveness in rallying voters behind him.
It also has significant implications regarding the extent of his persuasive power.
Schwarzenegger was able to gain a majority of voter’s support for what was, at the outset, a largely unpopular measure.
“He clearly staked a lot on (the passage of Propositions 57 and 58)” said political science Professor Franklin Gilliam.
Riding on the success of these bonds were Schwarzenegger’s money, his reputation and political capital or “goodwill,” Gilliam said.
“Future favors may pend on past successes,” he said.
Thus, yesterday’s triumph for Schwarzenegger may be a promising sign for future victories in political dealings.
It may also signify a bright outlook for Schwarzenegger’s relationship with the California public at large.
The voting public seems to have listened to Schwarzenegger’s plea, “California needs this,” referring to Propositions 57 and 58.
“My impression is that when Gov. Schwarzenegger started putting his name publicly behind the propositions, they got more support,” said Seth Masket, a graduate student of political science, who has been a TA for an American Politics class and is currently writing his dissertation on California politics.
This success will reinforce Schwarzenegger’s image as a winner, and give him momentum to demand cooperation from the Legislature in the future, he said.
“Fame and political power are not necessarily the same thing, but he (had) to show that, in his case, they are,” Masket said.
Voter support on Propositions 57 and 58 demonstrates there is a real consequence of crossing Schwarzenegger.
It shows Schwarzenegger could theoretically run a campaign against members of the Legislature who did not vote to approve his budget proposal, and he could be successful in preventing their re-election come next fall, Masket said.
“The message is that if you don’t vote moderate, it could cost you your job,” he said.
“It is a credible threat when he has shown that he has the population on his side,” he added.
Schwarzenegger’s image and his political authority should get an additional boost from the extra time the $15 billion bond provided by Proposition 57 buys him to fix California’s economic woes.
“The bond measure transfers some of the pain (of paying off the state deficit) into the future, rather than paying for it all right now,” Masket said.
In this way, Schwarzenegger largely escapes unpleasant tasks, which would make him unpopular.
He avoids causing “a lot of aggravation both to the legislature and the general public,” Gilliam said.
“He doesn’t have to make as deep of cuts or raise taxes. He doesn’t have to alienate Democrats or Republicans,” he added.
There may be hope, too, that the economy will turn around and generate new businesses, providing more money in state taxes to alleviate the debt, he said.
A revitalized economy would seem certain to turn even Schwarzenegger-skeptics to his favor.
For now, at least, “it looks like (Schwarzenegger) has a lot of political clout,” Gilliam said.



