The Daily Bruin spoke with political science professor Steven Spiegel on Tuesday to discuss the impact of Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and parts of the West Bank.
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Daily Bruin: What is the primary benefit regarding this unilateral disengagement?
Steven Spiegel: The advantage of disengagement for Israel is that its security will be enhanced by not having to protect the settlements there. The demographic problem will be alleviated, but not resolved, because the prospect of a majority of Arabs will be delayed for many years.
DB: Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas recently paid tribute to the so-called “martyrs” for helping provoke this unilateral withdrawal. Is disengagement merely capitulation to terrorism?
SS: There is a certain unfortunate rhetoric inside the Palestinian community that this statement reflects. You are singling out one unfortunate quote, but there are also a great number of positive statements he has made.
Personally, I believe the Palestinians did not gain Israeli withdrawals with bombs, but in bed. The demographic factor (of higher birthrate) was far more important than the violence in convincing Israelis to withdraw. You could say it was an example of the greater importance of sex in comparison to suicide bombings.
DB: What implications does disengagement have on the long-term security concerns for both Israel and the Palestinians?
SS: It provides the Palestinians with a way of controlling their own fate, and how they address it will have great influence on their future ability to attain full statehood. For Israel, it will test the efficacy of unilateral disengagement.
If Palestinian violence declines, we are likely to see more unilateral withdrawals from the West Bank, and the prospect of negotiations will be facilitated. If violence accelerates, Israelis will toughen their policies toward the Palestinians, and rely for their security more on military than political means.
DB: Will Hamas and other terrorist groups be strengthened or weakened by the withdrawal?
SS: Egypt’s new role on the border and in advising the Palestinians in Gaza will be critical in controlling Hamas. In the short term, they may be credited by many Palestinians with having gained Israeli withdrawal through terrorism, which is an unjustified conclusion in my opinion.
However, after a couple months their future role will depend in part on the effectiveness of the Palestinian Authority and in part on whether Hamas chooses to act politically and to become a conventional political party or whether it reverts to terrorism.
DB: Does Abbas have the will and/or the power to crack down on terrorism emanating from the disputed territories?
SS: He certainly has the will. I believe there will be a shakeup in the security services on the Palestinian side after disengagement. So far, the Palestinians have not done enough to reorganize the security services under (Abbas), but the Gaza withdrawal may become an impetus to action. However, the Palestinian security system has improved in the last couple of months.
DB: What are the prospects for the future of Palestinian democracy? Yasser Arafat is dead, but many say his legacy of authoritarianism lives on in the Palestinian Authority. Will Abbas build a true democracy?
How would you judge a true democracy? Abbas is the only duly elected Arab leader in the Arab world, although you could say in Lebanon there is certainly major progress. There is no other Arab leader that has the popular imprimatur that Abbas has.
Does this mean that they have true democracy? No. Will it mean true democracy in the future? It depends on their ability to control corruption, which is critical. They must reform their security services and have judicial and other political reforms as well. The legislative elections scheduled for late January will also be important.
Interview conducted by columnist David Keyes. This interview was edited for length and clarity.