John Roberts Jr. has received so much support as the next chief justice of the U.S. Supreme Court that law Professor Grant Nelson said “you can bet your life savings he’ll be confirmed.”
Though it is unlikely that many in the UCLA community will gamble on Roberts’ appointment, professors and students alike expect the Republican federal appellate judge to be confirmed by the Senate when his appointment is put to a vote today.
The likelihood that Roberts will be appointed as the next chief justice of the Supreme Court is “as close to 100 percent as could possibly be,” said Daniel Lowenstein, a professor at the UCLA School of Law.
When Roberts’ nomination was announced by President Bush in late July, little was known about the man who graduated from Harvard and served as a lawyer for the Reagan administration.
Since then, investigations and Senate questioning have revealed no major scandals on his record and produced answers that have shed some light on his politics.
For example, Roberts proved that he supports citizens’ right to privacy, said Law Professor Gary Rowe.
“It seems like the momentum’s in his favor,” Rowe added.
So, rather than asking whether or not he will be confirmed by the Senate, the unknown seems to be how many senators will support him.
All Republican senators are likely to vote in Roberts’ favor, which alone would guarantee a confirmation, and many Democrats are also expected to set aside political qualms and give Roberts their support.
“It’s quite clear that he’s going to get probably every single Republican vote, which is more than he needs, plus some substantial number of Democratic votes,” Lowenstein said.
Many Democrats have already announced their support for Roberts despite his conservative views.
In all, Gabe Rose of the Bruin Democrats said he expects about half of the Democrats in Senate to give Roberts an affirmative vote.
“It’s looking like the Democratic party is going to be split about 50-50,” he said.
Some Democrats have been hesitant to grant support for Roberts’ nomination.
“I think several Democrats have come out against him because of some of the things he had said and written earlier in his career,” said Gary Rowe.
“When he was in the Reagan administration ... he wrote some memoirs, for example, suggesting that Congress has the right to strip the courts of jurisdiction over particular types of cases, and that is a very controversial position,” he said.
But Roberts has won over many senators with his long list of qualifications, extensive experience and almost unmarred character.
In his career, Roberts has argued almost 40 cases before the Supreme Court, Nelson said.
“There’s very few people living today who can make that claim,” he added.
And investigators have not unearthed any personal information to cause apprehension among senators.
“(There are) no apparent blots on his character at all,” Lowenstein said.
Another factor that senators consider when confirming a Supreme Court nominee is the effect that justice will have on the politics of the court, said law Professor Jonathan Varat.
“Part of it also is about how closely divided you think the court is and how much difference it will make,” he said.
And Varat said Roberts’ nomination will not shift the political leaning of the Supreme Court.
“Roberts is replacing someone who is quite conservative ... so it doesn’t change the direction of the court,” Varat said.
President Bush is expected to announce his nomination for a justice to replace Sandra Day O’Connor, who recently announced her resignation from the Supreme Court.