Many in the national media are making Arizona the trendy pick to rule the Pac-10 and make a run to the Final Four.
If they looked a little bit closer, though, they’d know the smart money wouldn’t be on the Wildcats but instead on the Bruins repeating their magical run from last season.
With the loss of three starters, it would be perfectly reasonable to believe that UCLA might slip a bit from last year’s heights. Coach Ben Howland couldn’t possibly survive losing Jordan Farmar, Ryan Hollins and Cedric Bozeman to the NBA.
Could he?
I’m here to say that the Bruins are still the class of the conference – and with no seniors now on the roster, they will be for years to come.
What do those talking heads on the East Coast know, anyway? If I learned anything from following UCLA’s run through the tournament last season, it’s that the national media can’t possibly know the state of every program across the country. It’s not their fault. There are too many teams to cover them all, but they’re left with only snapshots of certain teams when discussing the national picture.
And it’s easy to see what makes Arizona so attractive as a national title contender.
Start off with Hall of Fame coach Lute Olson. He’s already won a championship and appears to have the talent to go all the way again.
Point guard Mustafa Shakur is one of the most physically gifted players at his position. There’s an absurd amount of NBA talent at the wings with Jawaan McClellan, Marcus Williams and freshman Chase Budinger.
Ivan Radenovic and Kirk Walters are more than serviceable inside, and with apparent depth at every position, why can’t they win it all? Seems fair enough.
But not if you look a little deeper.
The Cats can score with anybody and have the athletes to run teams straight off the court. What they lack, though, is the mindset to play the kind of defense that helps them win games when their shots aren’t falling.
And while their defense is suspect, perhaps an even bigger concern is their point guard Shakur, who has failed to live up to the lofty expectations placed on him coming out of high school.
He hasn’t proven to be a true floor general, which is why he failed his audition this past offseason with the NBA. So excuse me for not having faith that he’ll suddenly fix three years of problems in one summer.
The Bruins, however, don’t have the problems faced by the Cats. Arizona is probably more talented, but UCLA is simply better coached.
Led by junior Arron Afflalo, the Bruins play tough-minded, in-your-face defense for 40 minutes every night. If you don’t play D, you can’t play for Howland.
And that keeps the Bruins in every game, night after night. Shooting may come and go, but defense never fades.
The return of sophomore Josh Shipp revs up the offense as another premium shooter, passer and offensive rebounder. Sophomores Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Alfred Aboya and Darren Collison are all a year older and a year better.
The key to this entire puzzle, however, is really Ben Howland. He’s proven over his career here that his teams, as well as individual players, improve throughout the season.
Last year’s team that made the run to the Final Four was nothing like the team that struggled to beat Drexel and Wagner at the beginning of that year. Look for the same kind of improvement this season.
So while teams like Arizona, Washington and Oregon might have the talent to challenge UCLA on paper, don’t be surprised when the Bruins are sitting atop the Pac-10 in March.
You can bet on that.
E-mail Lee at jlee3@media.ucla.edu if you eat Wildcats for breakfast.