• printer friendly
• mail this article
• iPod format
• digg

Photo

Just a glance at ballots from recent presidential elections makes it clear that blacks, Latinos and women have been vying for votes alongside names such as George W. Bush and John Kerry for some time.

They have just never done so as Democrats or Republicans.

But this year, it is possible that the Democratic nomination could go to a candidate from one of these groups.

Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-NY, and Bill Richardson, the Democratic governor of New Mexico, have all announced their plans to run for the presidency, and each is from a racial group or gender from which a president has never been elected – blacks, women and Latinos, respectively.

The diverse set of candidates has generated a great deal of discussion among experts and within the media regarding these candidates’ chances for success.

Robert Erikson, a professor of political science at Columbia University, said being a woman or a racial minority is not a total obstacle to gaining the presidential nomination, but Clinton and Obama may face obstacles encountered by previous candidates who did not fit the mold of those who typically enter the White House.

“A lot of people can remember John Kennedy facing hurdles,” Erikson said, referring to Kennedy’s Catholic faith, a subject which generated much attention during the time of his campaign.

Lynn Vavreck, a professor of political science at UCLA, said she does not believe it would be unusual if there were segments of the American population who would not vote for Obama or Clinton on the basis of race or gender.

But she did suggest that the presence of a female in the race could affect other candidates’ campaigns.

“There’s some evidence that men running against women are less likely to attack women,” Vavreck said. “But we really don’t know much about this thing at the president level.”

Erickson said that though there may be people who are disinclined to vote for a black or female candidate based on the candidate’s race or gender, those factors are obstacles that can be overcome.

He added that for whoever receives the democratic nomination, the focus will not be on their race or gender, but on other campaign factors.

Mark Petracca, chairman of the Department of Political Science at UC Irvine, said while the entrance of Clinton and Obama into the campaign is “historic,” gender or race may be a less important factor in getting votes.

“We elect executives,” Petracca said, explaining that Americans in the 20th century have primarily elected those with executive experience for president, including governors and vice presidents. Of all the presidents elected in the 20th century, Warren G. Harding and John F. Kennedy were the only presidents to be elected when they were U.S. senators.

With this trend in mind, Petracca said he believes race and gender may be less of a determinant factor.

“It’s not their gender or their race. It’s what they’re doing now,” he said.

Petracca said Richardson could have the executive advantage, as he combines the socio-demographic qualities of Hispanic ethnicity with executive branch experience from his time as a cabinet member in the Clinton administration and governor of New Mexico. But Petracca added that he does not have the same financial backing as Clinton or other candidates.

Financial support will be important for candidates to gain support. Clinton has already decided to forgo public campaign financing, given her strong fundraising abilities. Clinton’s advisers have not denied estimates that Clinton will raise about $100 million by the end of the year.

And the competing campaigns could make it difficult to discern which candidate has the most support any time soon.

“The Democrats will slug it out, and I can just imagine it will be months before the Democrats know who they will nominate,” Petracca said.

With reports from Bruin wire services.